A new study suggests COVID-19 restrictions could lead to an increase in childhood obesity.

Nicer weather in Illinois typically means children home for the summer congregate in public parks and pools, but many remain closed due to COVID-19 restrictions. A new study predicts it could increase childhood obesity, a problem that could get more severe if schools don’t reopen in the fall. 

Using childhood obesity rates under normal circumstances, Ruopeng An, a professor specializing in environmental factors on weight-related behaviors from Washington University in St. Louis, then factored in how much COVID-19 related closures would affect obesity in school-age children. 

His models use the body mass index data from more than 15,000 kindergarten-to-5th grade children in 2011, then assume lower physical activity in four situations: closures of schools in April and May of 2020, the previous school closures plus a ten percent reduction in physical activity due to summer closures, all of the former closures plus schools staying closed up to November, and finally all of the other closures plus schools remaining closed until 2021. 

The study found marked increases in BMI as the ten-percent reduction in daily activity continued on into 2021, which An said becomes the root cause of a lifetime of additional health challenges. 

“Childhood obesity leads to adult obesity, which is associated with a variety of different chronic conditions such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, hypertension and some types of cancer,” An said. “Even just for childhood obesity itself, it leads to a lot of psychosocial adverse consequences. For example, low self-esteem, low self-confidence, mental health issues, being bullied more at school, being absent from more activities due to health conditions.”

Illinois had already made the first scenario of the study a reality, An said. 

Many public pools remain closed and public parks. 

An prefaces the study’s findings noting variances in physical activity in the home are likely to vary widely based on each student’s available activities. 

“Admittedly, children may make up for their lost [physical activity] opportunities at school by engaging in additional [physical activity] at home,” it said. “However, given the widespread community transmission of COVID-19 and nationwide stay-at-home orders, it is unlikely for the majority of children to adequately compensate for their reduced [physical activity] due to school closures.”

An theorized that inner-city children, typically low-income minorities, would have the least access to physical activities, possibly leading to a higher mean BMI. 

“The impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity was modestly larger among boys versus girls and among non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics compared with non-Hispanic whites and Asians,” according to the study.

Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike, a pediatrician by trade, stressed the importance of physical activity while the shutdown orders remained in place.

“Something as simple as going for a walk, while still social distancing, can help you not only physically, but mentally and emotionally,” she said. “When you exercise, your body releases endorphins that can trigger a positive feeling."

The study didn’t predict something as simplified as an additional pound per child in weight gain, rather an estimate of mean body mass index under the different scenarios.